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2019, 9th July

New CLARA seminar: Statistical and dynamical tools for seasonal forecast

 

On 19 July, at 12.00 pm CEST at CMCC@Ca'Foscari, CMCC PostDoc Carmen Alvarez will give a talk about "Statistical and dynamical tools for seasonal forecast". She will be introduced by David Garcia Leon, from CMCC Venice. 

Abstract:
Seasonal forecasts are essential tools to offer early-warning decision support, that can help to reduce the socio-economics related risk associated with anomalous events. Advances in statistical prediction are often linked with the enhance of understanding that usually leads to improve dynamical forecast. Thereby, both approaches are frequently combined in order to increase the robustness of the forecast. MEDSCOPE project (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) aims to improve the predictability of climate predictions from seasonal to decadal timescales over the Mediterranean area. One of the main lines of research of MEDSCOPE is to improve the extraction of relevant information from climate prediction systems and assess their robustness and uncertainty through a toolbox ”CSTools”. In this Toolbox, we are developing methodologies to extract usable information from predictions, producing tools for forecast verification, calibration, downscaling, ensemble member combination and selection that will be publicly released in a R-package and a Gitlab webpage.
Here I show the CMCC contribution to the CSTools and some other key methods to improve the seasonal forecasts. The methods presented will be based on weather regimes, analogs of circulation, and a novel statistical-dynamical approach using the dynamical system theory.


Short Biography:
Dr Alvarez-Castro holds a PhD in Climatology from the University of Pablo de Olavide (Seville, Spain). The general subject of her research is to better understand the role of the atmospheric circulation in the occurrence of extreme events. Her PhD thesis was about the development of an index, using documentary sources, to measure westerlies in the English Channel to study the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region during the past. She has gained more experience in the study of the atmospheric circulation and extreme events during her postdoc (3 yrs) at LSCE-IPSL (Gif-sur-Yvette, France): dealing with techniques to study analogs of circulation and weather regime classifications, applying the dynamical system theory to extreme events studies, and using some bias correction techniques. Since October 2017 she is postdoc at CMCC in the Climate Prediction and Simulation Division working in the predictability of extreme events and applying dynamical/statistical techniques for seasonal forecast. She has participated in European and International projects as Salva-Sinobas (Spanish Council), MedCLIVAR, MILEX, A2C2 (ERC project) and MEDSCOPE. Before and during the PhD, she has been trainee at JRC-European Commission (Ispra, Italy), visiting researcher at University of Lisbon (Portugal) and University of Sunderland (UK), and lecturer at University of Pablo de Olavide (Spain).

2019, 9th July

New CLARA seminar: Statistical and dynamical tools for seasonal forecast

 

 

On 19 July, at 12.00 pm CEST at CMCC@Ca'Foscari, CMCC PostDoc Carmen Alvarez will give a talk about "Statistical and dynamical tools for seasonal forecast". She will be introduced by David Garcia Leon, from CMCC Venice. 

Abstract:
Seasonal forecasts are essential tools to offer early-warning decision support, that can help to reduce the socio-economics related risk associated with anomalous events. Advances in statistical prediction are often linked with the enhance of understanding that usually leads to improve dynamical forecast. Thereby, both approaches are frequently combined in order to increase the robustness of the forecast. MEDSCOPE project (MEDiterranean Services Chain based On climate PrEdictions) aims to improve the predictability of climate predictions from seasonal to decadal timescales over the Mediterranean area. One of the main lines of research of MEDSCOPE is to improve the extraction of relevant information from climate prediction systems and assess their robustness and uncertainty through a toolbox ”CSTools”. In this Toolbox, we are developing methodologies to extract usable information from predictions, producing tools for forecast verification, calibration, downscaling, ensemble member combination and selection that will be publicly released in a R-package and a Gitlab webpage.
Here I show the CMCC contribution to the CSTools and some other key methods to improve the seasonal forecasts. The methods presented will be based on weather regimes, analogs of circulation, and a novel statistical-dynamical approach using the dynamical system theory.


Short Biography:
Dr Alvarez-Castro holds a PhD in Climatology from the University of Pablo de Olavide (Seville, Spain). The general subject of her research is to better understand the role of the atmospheric circulation in the occurrence of extreme events. Her PhD thesis was about the development of an index, using documentary sources, to measure westerlies in the English Channel to study the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region during the past. She has gained more experience in the study of the atmospheric circulation and extreme events during her postdoc (3 yrs) at LSCE-IPSL (Gif-sur-Yvette, France): dealing with techniques to study analogs of circulation and weather regime classifications, applying the dynamical system theory to extreme events studies, and using some bias correction techniques. Since October 2017 she is postdoc at CMCC in the Climate Prediction and Simulation Division working in the predictability of extreme events and applying dynamical/statistical techniques for seasonal forecast. She has participated in European and International projects as Salva-Sinobas (Spanish Council), MedCLIVAR, MILEX, A2C2 (ERC project) and MEDSCOPE. Before and during the PhD, she has been trainee at JRC-European Commission (Ispra, Italy), visiting researcher at University of Lisbon (Portugal) and University of Sunderland (UK), and lecturer at University of Pablo de Olavide (Spain).