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2019, 4th March

Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea

Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea: Accounting for interactions among climate and anthropogenic pressures

A new manuscript relevant for CLARA project has been accepted by the Journal "Science of the Total Environment" (STOTEN).

Assessing and managing cumulative impacts produced by interactive anthropogenic and natural drivers is a major challenge to achieve the sustainable use of marine spaces in line with the objectives of relevant EU acquis. However, the complexity of the marine environment and the uncertainty linked to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, represent major obstacles for understanding the multiplicity of impacts on the marine ecosystems and to identify appropriate management strategies to be implemented. Going beyond the traditional additive approach for cumulative impact appraisal, the Cumulative Impact Index (CI-Index) proposed in this paper applies advanced Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques to spatially model relationships between interactive climate and anthropogenic pressures, the environmental exposure and vulnerability patterns and the potential cumulative impacts for the marine ecosystems at risk. The assessment was performed based on spatial data characterizing location and vulnerability of 5 relevant marine targets (e.g. seagrasses and coral beds), and the distribution of 17 human activities (e.g. trawling, maritime traffic) during a reference scenario 2000–2015. Moreover, projections for selected physical and biogeochemical parameters (temperature and chlorophyll ‘a’) for the 2035–2050 timeframe under RCP8.5 scenario, were integrated in the assessment to evaluate index variations due to changing climate conditions.

The manuscript is authored by Elisa Furlan (ab), Silvia Torresan (ab), Andrea Critto (ab), Tomas Lovato (b), Cosimo Solidoro (cd), Paolo Lazzari (c), Antonio Marcomini (ab)

a) Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy

b) Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy

c) National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), I-34010 Sgonico, Trieste, Italy

d) International Centre for Theoretical Physic (ICTP), I-34010 Trieste, Italy

Manuscript received 8 January 2019, Revised 27 February 2019, Accepted 2 March 2019, Available online 3 March 2019.

Read and download the paper here.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.021

2019, 4th March

Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea

 

Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea: Accounting for interactions among climate and anthropogenic pressures

A new manuscript relevant for CLARA project has been accepted by the Journal "Science of the Total Environment" (STOTEN).

Assessing and managing cumulative impacts produced by interactive anthropogenic and natural drivers is a major challenge to achieve the sustainable use of marine spaces in line with the objectives of relevant EU acquis. However, the complexity of the marine environment and the uncertainty linked to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, represent major obstacles for understanding the multiplicity of impacts on the marine ecosystems and to identify appropriate management strategies to be implemented. Going beyond the traditional additive approach for cumulative impact appraisal, the Cumulative Impact Index (CI-Index) proposed in this paper applies advanced Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques to spatially model relationships between interactive climate and anthropogenic pressures, the environmental exposure and vulnerability patterns and the potential cumulative impacts for the marine ecosystems at risk. The assessment was performed based on spatial data characterizing location and vulnerability of 5 relevant marine targets (e.g. seagrasses and coral beds), and the distribution of 17 human activities (e.g. trawling, maritime traffic) during a reference scenario 2000–2015. Moreover, projections for selected physical and biogeochemical parameters (temperature and chlorophyll ‘a’) for the 2035–2050 timeframe under RCP8.5 scenario, were integrated in the assessment to evaluate index variations due to changing climate conditions.

The manuscript is authored by Elisa Furlan (ab), Silvia Torresan (ab), Andrea Critto (ab), Tomas Lovato (b), Cosimo Solidoro (cd), Paolo Lazzari (c), Antonio Marcomini (ab)

a) Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy

b) Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), I-73100 Lecce, Italy

c) National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics (OGS), I-34010 Sgonico, Trieste, Italy

d) International Centre for Theoretical Physic (ICTP), I-34010 Trieste, Italy

Manuscript received 8 January 2019, Revised 27 February 2019, Accepted 2 March 2019, Available online 3 March 2019.

Read and download the paper here.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.021